Updated NCAA Football Predictions

Not too long ago, I laid out all the various major preseason, NCAA top-25 forecasts. Cool stuff, right? Well guess what time it is. That's right. Its time for an update.

First, let me drop two more significant ranking sets:

CBS Sportsline Poll

1. Ohio State
2. West Virginia
3. Lousiana State
4. Notre Dame
5. Auburn
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas
8. USC
9. Florida
10. Oregon
11. Georgia
12. Florida State
13. Virginia Tech
14. Iowa
15. Louisville
16. California
17. Clemson
18. Penn State
19. Michigan
20. Miami
21. Boston College
22. Nebraska
23. Texas Christian
24. Georgia Tech
25. UCLA


And, the one I've been little girl giddy about, the EA Sports Ranking from NCAA Football 2007


1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. USC
5. Louisiana State
6. Florida
7. Auburn
8. Oklahoma
9. West Virginia
10. Louisville
11. Miami
12. Florida State
13. Penn State
14. Michigan
15. California
16. Georgia
17. Iowa
18. Tennessee
19. Arizona State
20. Nebraska
21. Virginia Tech
22. Texas Tech
23. Clemson
24. Alabama
25. Georgia Tech

Some interesting little changes, eh? From what I can tell, the EA poll is based more on the composite skills of the players - other polls tend to take into account the peculiarities of coaches, strength of schedule, etc. . . I dunno'. That said, I entered these rankings into my previous poll spreadsheet and have updated my composite ranking - ahh, the assimilation of the wisdom of the (highly informed) masses. Note that I'm including the weighted scores so you can see where the rankings are hmmm. . . edgy?, and where consensus is much stronger. Oh, and if your wondering how I did it, I just assigned each ranking a score (a rank of #1, for instance becomes 25, of #2 becomes 24 and so on), then simply averaged them for the mean. The system isn't perfect, by any means, but it is something. And yes, it biases in favor of those states which appear on all the polls (or nearly all) - what of it?

1. Ohio State (23.86)
2. West Virginia (21.43)
3. Notre Dame (21.29)
4. USC (21)
5. LSU (20)
6. Auburn (17.57)
7. Florida (17.29)
8. Oklahoma (14)
9. Penn State (12.71)
10. Virginia Tech (11.86)
11. California (10.43)
12. Georgia (9.29)
13. Michigan (8.14)
14. Florida State (7.286)
15. Miami (7.2857)
16. Alabama (6.714286)
17. Texas Christian (6.7142857)
18. Louisville (6.57)
19. Iowa (6)
20. Oregon (5)
21. Texas Tech (3.57)
22. UCLA (3.43)
23. Arizona State (3.42)
24. Clemson (3.29)
25. Wisconsin and Boston College (tie at 3.142857)

And, of course, other schools mentioned in at least one top 25 poll: Nebraska, Tennessee, Utah, and Georgia Tech.

Dig the colored sections - they aren't the only close calls, but they definitely drew my eye. So I colored them. So they'd draw your eye. Eyes.

My thoughts? Well, I have a couple, now that I've read quite a bit and played a couple games with the ol' NCAA 2007. Let me tell you what I think. First, I believe OSU is the most distinct and definite frontrunner of pack - they deserve their number 1 ranking. West Virginia, well, I think they'll get a major bowl, but I think that hopes may be a little high - though I would flip out awesome style to see them in the National Championship. Notre Dame, yeah, they're on their way back, and they'll almost definitely pull a top-10, but top five? I just don't think so. . . they have the makings, but with their schedule, well, I think they may be in for a bad way. Underrated teams (by at least say, five places): I am gonna' call, for the time being at least, Clemson, Louisville, and Penn State. Here is the gig - Clemson, I think, looks tough on paper, Louisville, I think, looks tuff on paper, and Adam Kennedy, well, he could kill me with a mere look - and I refuse to catch the death from offending his Penn State-loving sensibilities.

God I'm excited. And its just July.